The last set of figures released by HMRC showed that (provisionally) we were at 890k in 2017/18 (down from 950k in 2016/17). They suggested some of this was due to businesses payrolling car benefit – but we have our doubts.

Total tax revenues have a way of flattening out if you keep upping the rate. We think the average increase in company car tax bills on 6 April 2018 was between 10% and 20% (2018/19 was something of record for a year on year increase – with the 2% scale charge escalator, the 1% increase in the diesel surcharge AND the implications of NEDC correlation).

So in the graphic below we estimated company car numbers for 2018/19 assuming the total tax and NIC collected was flat – and we get 810k, that’s by April 2019. So easily under 800k by today? Do you agree?