Approx 1% of the 31.7m cars on the road in the UK are now EV. 15% of cars registered in October were EV. At this rate of change, it got us speculating at HRUX how quickly we’d see the average car on UK roads being electric?

We’ve produced the forecast below which reflects a number of assumptions, chiefly that annual total sales will stabilise closer to 2.5m units pa, once the current issues pass, and that we won’t see any further supply issues arising (e.g. from things like Lithium or Cobalt shortages, etc). We also have factored in the ICE ban from 2030 and the PHEV ban from 2035.

What this shows us is that we can expect EV penetration to grow to 10% by as early as 2026 and 20% by around 2028. By 2035, as the PHEV ban comes in, 50% of all cars on the road will, we predict, be EV.

I strongly suspect that newer cars do proportionately more miles than older ones, which means the positive impact on the air we breath may be felt even sooner.